Historic Shutdown Shakes Markets: Tech Tumbles, Dollar Wavers
Market Sentiment Overview
Markets buckled under the weight of the longest US government shutdown in history (38 days and counting), triggering a tech sell-off that wiped billions off AI darlings. The S&P 500 broke below its 50-day moving average for the first time since April, while Bitcoin plunged below $100K. Consumer sentiment crashed to 50.3, the lowest since 2022, as October layoffs surged 183% to the worst reading since 2003. Despite easing US-China trade tensions, risk-off sentiment dominated as the political stalemate shows no signs of resolution.
Currencies
USD Index: Failed Breakout Above 100.00 (99.80)
Current Trend: Mixed/Consolidative Market Sentiment: Uncertain
The US Dollar failed to sustain its move above the psychological 100.00 barrier and the critical 200-day SMA, retreating to modest weekly losses around 99.80. The DXY marked its fourth consecutive monthly decline, down nearly 10% since the tariff-driven peaks in February. Fed rate cut expectations for December rose to 65% probability after October’s Challenger Job Cuts report showed 153,000 layoffs—the worst October in over two decades. The data drought caused by the ongoing shutdown leaves Fed officials and traders flying blind, with markets pricing in roughly 87 basis points of easing by the end of 2026.
Potential Resistance: 100.05; 101.33
Potential Support: 98.26; 97.05
EUR/USD: Rebounds Despite ECB Dovishness (1.1580)
Current Trend: Bullish Recovery Market Sentiment: Cautiously Positive
EUR/USD bounced from three-month lows at 1.1468 to end the week around 1.1580, capitalizing on broad Dollar weakness. The pair remains capped by bearish 20-day SMA at 1.1594 but found support from the rising 200-day SMA at 1.1342. Eurozone data showed mixed signals with Services PMI upwardly revised to 53.0, while Retail Sales disappointed at -0.1% MoM. ECB President Lagarde noted the bank has reached “a good place” on monetary policy, suggesting a pause in the easing cycle.
Potential Resistance: 1.1650; 1.1759
Potential Support: 1.1472; 1.1347
GBP/USD: Tests 1.3000 Support (1.3160)
Current Trend: Bearish (Recovering) Market Sentiment: Cautious
Cable plunged to seven-month lows near 1.3000 before staging a modest recovery to 1.3160 as Dollar weakness provided relief. The BoE’s dovish hold decision (5-4 vote split) reinforced expectations for gradual rate cuts ahead. An impending Bear Cross on the daily chart (21-day SMA crossing below 200-day SMA) and RSI at 36 signal continued downside risks.
Potential Resistance: 1.3318; 1.3498
Potential Support: 1.2996; 1.2813
Stocks
S&P 500: Tech Selloff Drives Weekly Decline (Down 1.1%)
Current Trend: Bearish Market Sentiment: Risk-Off
The S&P 500 closed 1.1% lower, heading for its largest weekly decline since April when tariffs were first announced. The tech-heavy selloff reflects growing unease about how far the AI rally has run, with investors questioning valuations and profitability in the sector. Despite the pullback, AI analysis suggests the index may show steady, albeit cautious, upward momentum if Treasury yields stabilize and corporate earnings continue to support. The market’s reaction to recent tech earnings reveals emerging fears about an AI bubble, particularly after Meta stock dived following announcements of massive capital expenses for data center buildouts.
Potential Resistance: 6895.39; 7046.27
Potential Support: 6605.15; 6445.64
Commodities
Gold: Stabilizes Near $4,000 (4,000)
Current Trend: Neutral/Consolidative Market Sentiment: Uncommitted
Gold fluctuated within a tight channel around $4,000, caught between safe-haven demand from the shutdown and reduced Fed easing expectations. The RSI on the daily chart hovers slightly above 50, highlighting indecisiveness. Gold remains sandwiched between the 20-day SMA resistance at $4,080 and the 50-day SMA support at $3,880. Markets are pricing a 65% probability of a December Fed rate cut, creating two-way risk.
Potential Resistance: 4129.41; 4252.94
Potential Support: 3887.35; 3762.15
WTI Crude Oil: Shutdown Weighs on Sentiment (59.00)
Current Trend: Bearish Market Sentiment: Negative
WTI crude trades near $59, holding the mid-zone of its three-year downtrend channel amid risk-off sentiment from the prolonged government shutdown and AI-related layoffs. The 38-day stalemate is taking a heavier toll on markets heading into year-end. Technical structure shows downside risk below $55 toward $49, while a sentiment turnaround could push prices toward $63-$66 resistance and ultimately $70 at the upper channel boundary. Chinese CPI rising to +0.2% near yearly highs provides modest demand support.
Potential Resistance: 61.83; 63.97
Potential Support: 57.97; 55.84
Crypto
Bitcoin: $100K Support Under Pressure (101,000)
Current Trend: Bearish Market Sentiment: Cautious
Bitcoin dropped over 8% for the week, briefly falling below $100K to $98,944—the lowest since late June. Long-term holders continued aggressive selling, with BTC supply aged 180-365 days declining by 319,626 BTC over the past month. Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded the highest single-day outflow since August ($577.74M on Tuesday), with total weekly outflows hitting $661.22M. Price now hovers near the critical 365-day MA support at $102,000. Despite November historically being Bitcoin’s strongest month (averaging 41.92% gains), technical indicators warn of a deeper correction toward $72,000 if $100K breaks decisively.
Potential Resistance: 108447.42; 115879.84
Potential Support: 98987.99; 91825.84
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Key Events This Week (Nov 11-15, 2025)
Economic Releases (Data Drought Continues)
Monday: UK Nationwide House Prices
Tuesday: UK Employment Data, BoE’s Huw Pill speaks
Wednesday: Australia Q1 GDP, US ADP Employment (weekly release starting)
Thursday: UK Q3 GDP (preliminary), Monthly GDP
Friday: Germany Retail Sales, US delayed data pending shutdown resolution
Central Bank Watch
Fed officials in blackout before potential December meeting
Mixed Fed commentary: Goolsbee cautious, Cook sees December as “live”, Hammack hawkish on inflation
The BoE signaled a gradual downward path for rates if disinflation continues
ECB in wait-and-see mode after reaching “good place” on policy
Key Themes
Government Shutdown: 38 days and the longest in US history, no resolution in sight
Data Vacuum: CPI, PPI, NFP, and Retail Sales postponed indefinitely
Trade Developments: China lifting some tariffs on US agricultural goods, Nov 10
Tech Concerns: AI bubble fears, massive corporate layoffs, Nvidia competition from China
Week Ahead Outlook
With official US data releases on hold due to the shutdown, market focus shifts to Fed commentary (before blackout period), UK employment and GDP figures, and private sector indicators. The technical breakdown in major indices and Bitcoin’s test of $100K support suggest mounting pressure on risk assets.
Senate Democrats’ attempt to end the shutdown could provide near-term relief, but until the 38-day impasse resolves, markets will remain vulnerable to headline risk. The combination of weak consumer sentiment (50.3), massive October layoffs (153K), and crumbling tech leadership points to heightened volatility ahead.
Historical precedent shows November as Bitcoin’s strongest month and Q4 typically bullish for equities, but the unprecedented government dysfunction may override seasonal patterns this year.
Risk management remains critical given elevated volatility from political uncertainty, absent economic data, and deteriorating technical structures across major asset classes.
